Forbes has an
opinion piece on why Google and Facebook will be dead in 5 years, focusing mostly on the fact that neither company really gets mobile, and asserting that everyone will use mobile devices exclusively to access information. The conclusion - the web is dead, and only mobile companies will survive past the five year horizon. In my opinion, the author Eric Jackson is focusing on the wrong thing - the device. Discussing whether we use a phone like gadget, watch like gadget, eye glasses, or laptop is focusing on the trees, not the forest.
In Tim Wu's book
The Master Switch, we find a much more convincing depiction of the future. Wu focuses on the information ecosystem - the end to end delivery of information, on any device at any time. He uses AT&T, Apple, and the movie and music industries as an example. If you buy into the Apple infrastructure, it is easy to buy movies and music using iTunes, and if net neutrality dies, you won't have any bandwidth caps if you use the right applications. Similar vertical integration partnerships will happen with Verizon and Comcast, and with a cost of entry into the telecom business in the billions, there are a limited number of seats at the table for content providers to team up with.
So the question is, who will Facebook team up with? Or will Facebook simply offer a limited set of functionality, allowing it to offer services across all of the vertically integrated entertainment space?
As far as Google is concerned, Wu speculates it will either join the party and provide its own infrastructure, creating a competing vertical, or fight to keep some semblance of openness in the network. This was written before apps increasing kept their data away from web exposure, making search an activity that allows you to find local businesses, map routes, and scholarly articles.
Don't just focus on the gadgets, the data, the apps, or the service providers (the trees), look at who is partnering with whom - the forest.
image: blogs.independent.co.uk